Iran and Russia have put the final touches on a long-awaited agreement Cooperation agreementWhich strengthens relations between the two countries at a time when both are facing increasing geopolitical pressures.

The 20-year agreement, signed by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday, strengthens military and defense cooperation, and includes a clause stipulating that neither country will be allowed to use its territory for any action that would threaten safety. The other party, and not providing any assistance to any party attacking either country.

Such a deal has been talked about for years, but current events have made the need for an agreement more urgent.

For Russia, War in Ukraine This has strained its geopolitical position, while Iran, in addition to Moscow, has been grappling with Western sanctions and the repercussions of Israeli attacks on and weakening Iran. Many of its allies in the regionAnd also The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria In early December.

It was arguably Syria that provided the main impetus for strengthening relations, as both powers lost a key ally in Assad, weakening their power in the wider Middle East.

Both Moscow and Tehran were eventually prepared to abandon Assad, after being surprised by the opposition’s advances. But they now appear committed to strengthening their bilateral relations.

The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement during Pezeshkyan’s official visit to Moscow reflects this.

The agreement depends not only on Russian-Iranian cooperation regarding Ukraine and efforts to evade Western sanctions, but also on the North-South Transport Corridor – an initiative supported by Moscow to facilitate trade from Asia to Russia.

This route, designed to bypass geopolitical chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and the Baltics, favors a land corridor through Iran, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea.

Syria as a catalyst

Before the start of the war in Syria in 2011, both Moscow and Tehran had their own strategic partnerships with Damascus.

Russia’s partnership was anchored by the naval base at Tartus, established in 1971 to project power across the Mediterranean, and the Hmeimim air base, built in 2015 initially to provide air support to Assad against the Syrian opposition. Over time, the air base played a pivotal role in Moscow’s operations in Africa.

At the same time, Iran deepened its ties during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, driven by the understanding that Tehran and Damascus opposed Western intervention in the region. Syria has become an important channel for the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah group, which is part of the “Shiite Crescent” and the “Axis of Resistance” in Iran.

Iranian and Russian strategic interests in Syria converged as the war progressed, especially in 2015, when both intervened forcefully to prevent an opposition victory.

Russia’s military intervention in 2015 stabilized the Assad regime, with the help of Iranian-allied militias playing a crucial role in turning the tide of the conflict.

“Relations between Russia and Iran have expanded since then,” Kirill Semenov, a non-resident expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Al Jazeera. “After 2020, events in Syria had only a minor impact on Russian-Iranian relations, which developed in many new directions.”

These include military cooperation, and expanding economic ties, as Tehran and Moscow work to bypass Western sanctions through alternative banking mechanisms and energy deals. Iran has also positioned itself as an important transit hub for Russia’s north-south transport corridor, providing a vital trade route to Asia.

Relations have also deepened since the Russian-Ukrainian war. Russia uses drones provided by IranDriven by common interests in the face of the perceived global hegemony of the United States. Both countries are seeking alternatives to the US-led global order, as Iran views Russia as a partner in its axis to the East.

Iran’s entry into the BRICS group of emerging economies in 2023, a club of which Russia was already a part, could be seen as part of this effort. BRICS provides a platform for cooperation, as Iran looks to membership and integration into a multipolar economic bloc in line with its goals.

“Building a multipolar world and confronting the expansionist plans of the United States and the collective West remain fundamental to Russian-Iranian cooperation,” Semenov said.

Hamid Reza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs, said it was this common enemy approach that brought Iran and Russia closer together.

“Both sides have taken steps to upgrade their relationship towards a kind of strategic partnership, especially in areas such as military and security cooperation, and more recently in economic cooperation, with the aim of evading sanctions and adapting to the negative effects of economic pressures from the West,” Azizi said.

The limits of the Russian-Iranian partnership

While the cooperation agreement signed on Friday indicates a deepening of the partnership, it does not include a mutual defense clause or constitute the formation of a formal alliance, unlike the treaty Russia signed with North Korea last year.

This may reflect the limits of the relationship between Iran and Russia, as we have already seen in Syria.

There, Tehran and Moscow were unable to find common ground and were often undermining each other or unable to rise to the challenge of rebuilding the country.

For example, in 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin made it clear that his country would be the only country to rebuild Syria’s energy industry. Iran, keen to reap the benefits of reconstruction in Syria, has been pushed back by Assad and Moscow, with one Iranian parliamentarian warning that Iran is being “sacrificed”.

The new Syrian administration may also become a point of contention between Russia and Iran, with Moscow maintaining a more conciliatory approach.

Azizi pointed out that the repercussions of Assad’s fall for both Russia and Iran will depend on many variables, including “whether or not there is an agreement or understanding behind the scenes between Russia on the one hand and the United States and Turkey and the United States.” [the former] Syrian rebels, on the other hand, as part of a possible comprehensive package that includes Syria and Ukraine.

“For example, if Russia can maintain its military bases in Syria, albeit in a reduced capacity, and if there is an agreement to end the war in Ukraine after that date.” [US President-elect] “When Donald Trump takes office, Russia may actually feel less need for Iranian support on various fronts in both Syria and Ukraine,” Azizi added, although he added that he believes any fundamental changes in Iran-Russia relations are unlikely. Due to the “increasing depth of cooperation.” “In the last few years.

Disagreement may be possible in other areas as well, especially regarding the issue of nuclear weapons, which the West accuses Iran of seeking. Iran’s defense doctrine officially opposes the pursuit of nuclear weapons, but some factions in Iran are now openly calling for that to change after Israel dealt several blows to its allies, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Russia has historically been involved in Iran’s nuclear program, including the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, but has repeatedly blocked progress throughout the 2000s and 2000s, leaving some in Iran to accuse Russia of being an unreliable partner. Moscow also delayed the delivery of the S-300 missile defense system between 2010 and 2016, as a result of sanctions imposed on Tehran by Western countries.

He added: “Russia does not want Iran to possess nuclear weapons… [that] It would change the balance of power in the Middle East against Russian interests. Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor at the Hamihan Daily newspaper in Tehran, said the best scenario for Russia is for Iran to remain under sanctions and challenge the United States and Europe over its nuclear program.

Montazeri added: “If Russia cooperates in containing Iran, it will likely seek concessions from the United States on the Ukraine issue.”

New trends in the Middle East

Geopolitical dynamics can always change depending on events on the ground, as Syria has proven, and lacking any strong ideological ties beyond an anti-American strategy, relations between Iran and Russia could become strained.

The changing nature of alliances can be seen in Türkiye’s opposition to, and cooperation with, Iran and Russia.

In December 2024, with the collapse of the Assad regime, Turkish, Iranian, and Russian foreign ministers met on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Qatar.

The tripartite meeting was held within the framework of the Astana Process, a diplomatic initiative aimed at managing the Syrian conflict, with Russia and Iran acting as guarantors on the regime side and Turkey on the opposition side.

Astana was an opportunity for the three powers to work together to achieve security goals in Syria, even as they supported different parties. But for most of the operation, it was Türkiye that was in the weaker position, given what was seen as a virtual victory for Assad in the war.

That has now changed, and it is Türkiye’s long-standing support for the former opposition that puts it in a position of strength vis-à-vis Iran and Russia, and a channel for influence on Damascus.

It’s a new reality they will have to adapt to, said Omer Ozkizilcik, director of Turkish studies at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul.

“Although Iran is clearly disadvantaged, it will have to adapt to the new reality and establish some form of relationship with the new Syrian government,” Ozkizilcik said, referring to the absolute mandate given by the Assad regime to Iran to operate within Syrian territory.

For its part, while Russia hopes to keep its bases in Syria, it is avoiding the new reality It is partly transferred to LibyaIt has a close relationship with the eastern government based in Benghazi, and Russian cargo planes have made several flights to its Al-Khadim base.

On the other hand, Iran appears to have retreated to Iraq in an attempt to strengthen its position. Reports emerged that it pushed its allies in Iraq to stop firing missiles and drones towards Israel, which may have led to US-Israeli attacks on their positions.

In this context, Montazeri said that Iran is likely to strengthen its influence in Iraq, “the last pillars of the Iranian resistance axis.”

Iraq’s importance now represents a financial resource and defense buffer for Tehran, which relies on the country for economic support amid sanctions.

Iran has a history of adapting to changing geopolitical dynamics, and will be able to withstand any changes and maintain its relationship with Russia, said Seyed Emamian, co-founder of the Center for Governance and Policy Research in Tehran.

However, whatever deals may emerge between Russia and the United States in the wake of Trump’s inauguration, the Iranian leadership does not expect Putin to fundamentally change his strategic direction toward Iran.

“Putin is well aware of the anti-Russian stance rooted in American and European institutions,” Emamyan said.

“For the past three years, Russia has faced what it sees as an existential challenge from the West… It seems unlikely that Putin will risk his long-standing alliances, especially with those who have proven their loyalty at critical moments, such as in Syria and Crimea.” Imamian added.