Sanaa, Yemen – Mansour Saleh, a 25-year-old history graduate in Sanaa, has been glued to the political and military developments in Syria.

“Amazing,” “mysterious” and “unexpected,” are among some of the words he used to describe what happened in the country this month.

the The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad Earlier in December, it made millions of Yemenis think about what lies in store for their country.

Some say the fall of the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen – who control Sanaa and much of north and west Yemen – could be the region’s “next surprise.”

“My friends have different points of view. Some called me happy about the eclipse of the Syrian regime, and others are sad about such a scenario. We are a very divided society,” Saleh said.

Crying over the fall of Damascus

Assad’s defeat appears personal for Houthi supporters, who consider themselves part of the broader “axis of resistance” led by Iran for Israel and the United States.

During the Assad era, Syria was considered an essential part of the axis and a route for transporting weapons between Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon.

Abdul Rahman Ali, a 40-year-old from Sanaa, says the demise of the former Syrian regime represents a “huge loss.”

“When I saw the news of the fall of Damascus into the hands of Syrian armed groups supported by Turkey, I cried. I personally do not care about Bashar. What matters is the continued strength of the axis of resistance.”

The Houthis who They took control of Sanaa with weapons In September 2014 and then in 2015, the internationally recognized government was forced to resign, part of the Iranian “axis of resistance,” which includes the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Lebanese Hezbollah. The previous Syrian government was also considered part of the axis.

The Houthi seizure of power triggered a war as the ousted government and its regional allies – led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – attempted to regain control of Yemen.

In April 2022, a UN-sponsored ceasefire stopped the fighting, but control remains divided between different groups, including the Houthis, the Yemeni government and the Southern Transitional Council in the south and east.

Today, pro-Houthi Yemenis, like Ali, say war could break out again in Yemen.

“The current scenario in Syria may push anti-Ansar Allah groups to wage war,” he added, using the official name of the Houthis. This will push us into a new cycle of violence.”

Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, a senior member of the Houthi Supreme Political Council in Sanaa, said in a televised interview on December 12 that the Houthi leadership is not afraid of renewed fighting.

He added that the Houthis are ready if the “aggression” against Yemen resumes, using the term that the Houthis use to refer to attacks by forces stationed against them.

Al-Houthi added, “The Yemeni people do not care about the threats.” He added: “Any foolishness committed by the Israeli enemy against Yemen will spark strife [military] Operations carried out by the Yemeni armed forces.”

“Ending Iranian presence”

On the other side of the Yemeni divide, there are millions of opponents of the Houthis who see the fall of Assad as a victory for freedom and a defeat for tyranny.

“Finally, the Syrian people are getting justice,” said Faisal Mohammed, a 39-year-old teacher in Taiz, a city largely controlled by anti-Houthi forces that has suffered for years as a result of a siege imposed by the rebel group. “Assad’s fall gives us hope that the Arab world can rise above oppression.”

Faisal Muhammad believes that the events in Syria are a message to the Houthis.

“The Assad family’s rule has collapsed after 54 years… No matter how long the Houthis continue, they will suffer the same fate.”

With Iranian support over the past decade. Including weapons According to experts, the Houthis have fought many battles against pro-government forces in Yemen and have tightened their control over large areas of Yemen.

The group seemed militarily and politically secure, and Saudi Arabia had been searching for years for a way out of its intervention in Yemen, and seemed close to reaching an agreement with the Houthis at times. On the other hand, the anti-Houthi camp often appeared weak and divided, with many anti-Houthi Yemenis disappointed by the failure of their representatives.

In fact, it appeared that the Yemeni government would be forced to do so Agreeing to some form of transaction With the Houthis or frozen by Saudi Arabia.

However, events in the wider region, including the general weakness of Iran and its allies as a result of their conflict with Israel, have given many in the anti-Houthi camp hope that things have changed.

Hezbollah has suffered Huge losses At the hands of Israel, the Assad regime is eliminated. “Iran can do nothing,” Faisal Mohammed said. “Therefore, the Houthis are likely to face a similar fate, and this means uprooting the Iranian presence in Yemen.”

Mohammed Abdo, a Yemeni journalist based in Taiz who focuses on politics and war, told Al Jazeera that the battle to expel the Houthis will be “difficult.”

“The Houthis’ military strength and prowess are enormous. “They have thousands of fighters and weapons arsenals.”

“However, the collective effort by the Yemeni government and its regional and international allies could accelerate the collapse of the Houthis.”

Cautionary tale

But for some Yemenis, Assad’s fall is more of a warning than anything else.

“Syria shows us that overthrowing a dictator is not the end of the story,” said Younis Saleh, a shop owner in Sanaa. “What matters is what comes next. If Syria does not find peace, we will face the same endless cycle of violence.”

War-weary Yemenis echo this sentiment, regardless of their political affiliation. For them, Assad’s fall is a reminder of the need for a comprehensive solution to Yemen’s decade-long crisis.

The war between the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Iran-aligned Houthis has caused a humanitarian catastrophe.

Global Health Organization He said In March of this year, as the conflict in Yemen entered its tenth year, more than half of the country’s population was in urgent need of assistance.

An estimated 17.8 million people need health assistance, 50% of whom are children; 4.5 million people were displaced; The United Nations said more than 3,700 schools were damaged or reused.

“By peace or by force”

Abdul Salam Mohammed, head of the Yemeni Abaad Center for Studies and Research, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ actions in the waterways surrounding Yemen, where the group has attacked ships ostensibly in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza who are under Israeli attack, have led to international outrage. Isolation, and the campaign of air attacks led by the United States and the United Kingdom.

The Houthis also launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, leading to Israeli attacks on Yemen.

After the United States removed them from its terrorist designation list in 2021, so were the Houthis It was re-added to it last January.

Abdul Salam Muhammad said: “There is a national, regional and international decision to end the Houthi rule in Yemen, whether by peace or force.” “Time will tell how this will be achieved.”

Abdul Salam Mohammed also believes that this distance from the Houthis extends to the Gulf.

Abdul Salam Mohammed said: “The Houthi drones and missiles constantly threaten the oil-producing Gulf countries.” Therefore, when the opportunity comes to weaken the Houthis, the Gulf will exploit it. Likewise, Houthi opponents in Yemen will prioritize a military solution when the group’s downfall becomes possible.

The defeat of the “resistance axis” in Syria and its losses in Lebanon could pave the way for the fall of the Houthis in Yemen, according to Abdul Salam Muhammad.

“The Houthis were looking for new allies, such as Russia,” he said. But this does not prevent the scenario of the collapse of Hezbollah or the fall of Assad’s rule in Yemen from being repeated.

“This is a golden opportunity for the Yemeni government to regain control over the governorates that it lost to the Houthis during the past years of war.”

But that may be easier said than done. There were few indications that anti-Houthi forces were preparing to launch a major offensive.

The Houthis control some of the most populated parts of Yemen, but the region is also largely mountainous and easy to defend compared to the flatter terrain that characterized the previous Syrian opposition advance toward Damascus before its fall. The Houthis still enjoy the support of many influential Yemeni tribes, particularly the tribes surrounding Sanaa, which are vital to any chance of regaining control of the capital.

Saleh, a history graduate in Sanaa, described the atmosphere in Yemen as calm at the present time, but added that it could “explode at any moment.”

Saleh said: “The Houthis are waiting for a life-or-death battle, and their opponents are still hesitant to start the war.” “It may begin at any time, but its end will be indefinite.”