Just 18 months ago, Daniel Nuboa, 37, headed by Ecuador, won the youngest man who was ever elected to the office.

Now, on Sunday, he faces opinion polls again.

This time, however, a larger game of play: a full four -year period in the presidential palace. Since the last Noboa victory in early elections, he was limited to spending the remainder of his predecessor’s term.

In the Sunday race, Nuboa will face 15 competitors, including the left -wing Levantine Luisza Gonzalez, will face his main competitor in the last elections. The vote is preparing to be a referendum on his short work in his position so far.

Nubua entered a position as a candidate for law and demand, as he leads several measures to expand law enforcement powers-sometimes at the expense of supervision and civil freedoms. But Ecuador continued to object from high levels of violence and organized crime.

Who are the candidates? What are the issues that voters focus on? What can opinion polls tell us about the state of the race? We answer these questions and more in this brief explanation.

What is the process of Ecuador’s vote?

The first round of voting will occur on Sunday 9 February. In order to win explicitly, the candidate must secure more than 50 percent of the votes, or at least 40 percent with a 10 -point advantage over the candidate in second place.

If the candidate does not pass this threshold in the first round, the second round of the vote will be held on April 13, and it includes the best candidates.

Is the presidency the only office to seize?

no. These are general elections. All seats in the National Assembly consisting of 151 members in the country will also be to seize, and that election in the legislative body will present four -year periods.

Why was the state of Noboa in the office very short?

President Noboa was elected for the first time in October 2023 after his predecessor Gyremo LasoIn the face of accountability procedures, a constitutional mechanism called “Murte Cruzada” or “crossed death” was called.

No president has ever published Murte Cruzada before. Not only did it end, but it melts the Legislative Council of Ecuador, which led to the surprise elections.

At that time, Nubua was a member of the first period of the National Assembly, and was among the elected officials affected by the Cruzada.

The heir of the Banana Wealth, Nuboa eventually formed his private party and ran for the presidency, and won a narrow race that advanced to the second round. He was 35 years old at the time.

Then he completed what would have been the remainder of Laso’s term, which is 18 months. Now, he seeks a four -year term on its own.

What do polls say?

Nubua will face competition from a crowded field of candidates. But it is likely to have a competition for him the biggest Luisa Gonzalez, who defeated it with a margin of less than four points in 2023.

Gonzalez represents the left -wing Citizen Revolution Party, which was founded by former President Rafael Korea.

Most of the Noboa polls appear in the foreground-but less than the threshold to avoid surface flow. It is very likely that, as in 2023, the elections will move to a second round that motivates Noboa against Gonzalez.

Opinion polls do not show any other candidate with adequate support to challenge the applicants, but the polling before the elections does not always tell the entire story. Nuboa himself is barely registered in the intending of the voters ’intention before the first round of voting in 2023.

Who is another running?

Some familiar faces in the squad. Jan Topic, a right-wing businessman who was running in 2023, is competing again, and returns his invitation to the iron hat policies-or “Manu Dura”-to combat crime.

Leonidas Iza, the head of the powerful original power in the country, is also a return candidate. He was a prominent critic of former President Leru and made a campaign of greater sovereign and chances of the original people.

Another candidate may be a reminder of Ecuador’s conflicts with violence.

In 2023, the presidential race was threatened when a anti -corruption candidate, Fernando Philavicinsio, was shot after leaving, shortly before voting. He had sought to highlight the relationship between organized crime and government corruption.

His former colleague, Andrea Gonzalez, will be in the race on Sunday.

What do polls say about the National Assembly?

In the race to control the legislature, the outskirts of Nuboa and Gonzalez also lead the rest of the field.

Most of the polls in January showed the Noboa Democratic Party (ADN), which leads the citizen’s revolution in Gonzales (RC) on various margins. Only one poll found RC before ADN by about three points.

At the present time, the National Assembly has 137 sites, and the citizen’s revolution holds most of the seats in any one party: 48. But after Sunday elections, the National Assembly will expand to 151 seats, and the Nuboa party is expected to make great gains.

What are the issues that voters are more interested in?

A number of issues appeared as maximum priorities in public opinion polls, such as the high cost of living, the lack of sufficient economic opportunities, and a series of power outages that made life difficult for the country’s population.

But a January poll The comunicaliza data company suggested that one of the cases has the precedence over others: crime and insecurity. The second is the highest interest, and the lack of job opportunities, by 14 points.

“It was reflected in the survey after the survey that this is the number one anxiety,” Ivan Brezo, an expert in Latin American policy in the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazerera.

Why has violence become a problem with Ecuador?

Ecuador was once seen as a country that was safer and more stable than other parts of South America. She gained a reputation as “Salam Island” in an area known for cocaine cultivation and trafficking.

But in recent years, the explosion of violence and the regulating criminal activity of the country shocked.

“Ecuador had 7,000 murders last year with a population of 18 million, making it the highest murder rate in South America.” This is in a country that was known for decades a peaceful country. “

“It sheds light on the state’s inability to respond, but it also raises the issue of the complicity of state officials in criminal projects, and thus the size of corruption.”

Ecuador sits on the Pacific Coast between Colombia and Peru, the largest cocaine producers in the world.

In the wake of the Covid-19s, experts say drug tracking groups I started paying In the Ecuador region, it seeks to take advantage of the country’s ports.

The epidemic also caused the destruction of Ecuador’s economy, leaving many unemployed young people and workers of employment from criminal networks.

Nuboa blames his predecessors for allowing cocaine to produce Ecuador. In October, his government announced that the production of Coca – the raw component of the drug – was discovered on about 2000 hectares (4942 acres) of the ground.

What are the solutions that were presented?

The voters have put their faith largely Harsh solutions.

In April, for example, the country voted to a large extent in favor of reforms that would give the army’s role in public security and impose tougher sanctions on crimes such as drug trafficking.

Nubua showed himself ready to suspend major civil freedoms in the name of security progress.

in January 2024Nubua announced that the country is “in war” with criminal groups and declared a state of internal armed conflict, and expanding the army’s role in law enforcement activities.

To date, the results have been mixed. While the killing rate decreased slightly in 2024, it is still much higher than prenatal levels.

Violations also raised questions about the expanded forces of the army. In one case, surveillance footage seemed to show a military truck Four youth kidnapping In the port of Gawayakale. Their charred remains later were found near a military base.

But Brezo said that at the present time, the Ecuadorian policy dominates strong speech and ideas.

“No one will suggest negotiation with criminal groups. This is not on the agenda of any candidate.

But he added that security measures alone will not be sufficient to address the roots of crime in Ecuador.

“When you cannot leave your home due to the crime, you want the state to return,” he said.

“In the long term, these policies with security thinking, such as the deployment of the army, tend to fail if they are not accompanied by another more efforts, long -term that deal with corruption, social, economic and criminal investigation.”