• President Trump announced a new tariffA 10 % blanket increased over all countries and measures most cruel to major commercial countries such as China, the European Union, India and Japan, which leads to revenge threats and negotiation offers. Analysts expect negotiations, but they warn against economic slowdown and increased escalation, as the European Union has added new weapons to arsenal if necessary “the last resort.”

If you are hoping that the “liberation day” will achieve some decision President Donald Trump’s identificationYou will be wrong.

While Trump stood in the garden of roses yesterday and I announced a mixture From a specific tariff for the main commercial partners and 10 % on all other countries, leaders around the world have prepared their responses.

Some, represented by British Prime Minister Sir Kerr Starmer, said that the White House was acting in the interest of the United States – it was Pledge For Britain with “cold head”. Others, such as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Layen, promised the fast and continued revenge.

She said in a file statement Issued on April 2. “We are now preparing for more counter -measures to protect our interests and our actions in the event of negotiations.”

China – which is now facing 54 % cumulative duty on its exports – has dried the “Oval Office” to cancel the executive matter immediately, adding, and many other countries were “unavoidable” about “the practice of mono bullying”.

Therefore, the scene in the trade war was appointed to escalate – even if some players are afraid of the repercussions of such an escalation.

In this morning note, see it luckUBS said that in the next seasons, definitions are expected to be obtained for some countries and rise higher for others.

“In our case, we expect the customs tariffs to be reduced from the levels announced by the president,” wrote Mark Hevelli, UBS chief investment official, wrote: “The president himself called for negotiations, and Treasury Secretary Bessin said in an interview with Bloomberg that the declared definitions are” the end of the number “and that the two countries may take steps to drop the definitions. However, this process will take some time.

“In the short term, it can mean the principle of the United States, which imposes” mutual tariffs “that some international tariff rates rise if other countries have passed.”

This warning was echoed by Jim Reed from Deutsche Bank, who wrote in a memo on Wednesday: “Trump’s comments left the door open to potential negotiations to reduce the customs tariff, but his executive order left the field for further escalation, and so, he watched that the president may” increase or expand the scope imposed by any trader on the networks.

President Trump not only refused to exclude the possibility of tariffs higher than their current levels – he threatened them himself.

Republican politician previously wrote on his social media platform, that if the European Union and Canada work together against the American interest, they will do so The high face “is much larger” From those announced on April 2.

Moreover, President Trump’s speech on April 2 looked like a door closing any other measures.

He referred to the current measures on “Friend and Foe” both in the name of “Model type”, adding: “This is not completely mutual.”

Haefle added that he is expected to see the slowdown related to tariffs through the economy Q2 And Q3 for 2025, adding: “The Trump administration’s actions have already increased from the effective rate of the United States from 2.5 % to about 9.0 %, which is the highest since World War II.

“Our initial estimates indicate that Wednesday’s ads will bring the actual tariff rate about 15 percentage points, to about 25 %. Even if the customs tariff is eventually reduced by the end of the year, it is possible that the shock will come close to the short term and the uncertainty associated with it in the short term in the American economy and reduce the growth of the entire 2025 to or less than 1 %.”

How can other countries respond?

One of the most prominent headlines From the April 2 announcement is that The European Union is now facing a 20 % tariff. The main commercial ally of Uncle Sam was missed in the first few rounds of the definitions, which witnessed sanctions against China, Mexico, And Canada.

President Trump’s criticism of the “gentle European countries” rose before the announcement of Wednesday, although the volumes of commodities and commercial services between the United States and the European Union topped more than $ 1.5 trillion per year.

Analysts are already expecting how the European Union will respond with the removal of European politicians President Trump’s trade war.

Philipo Taddi from Goldman Sachs analyzed the potential measures that the trading bloc can take, and writing in a note seen by luck: “In our opinion, the European Union will design the revenge of commercial policy after three main criteria: in“ value terms ”against the definitions of the product (steel, aluminum, critical imports and cars), in the“ terms of the tariff rate ”to the broader mutual tariff … and on services thanks to the new policy tools.

Taddei added the specified goods for the product definitions that will first work from the target American exports list before adding another list of elements that can be replaced by other commercial partners.

One region where the European Union can harm the United States In services. The European Union has a trade surplus with the United States on goods, at a value of $ 173 billion (157 billion euros), while The United States holds a surplus On services, At $ 117 billion (109 billion euros).

Therefore, it relates to services – a region in which American companies rely on European customers to a large extent – where the European Union can strike hard.

“In our opinion, the European Union will try to remove trade tensions as much as possible,” added Tadi. “However, unlike the 2018-20 trade war, the European Union is now equipped with policy tools to expand the scope of revenge on the American tariff to target imports from American services. We evaluate this option so that the last resort will not consider the European Union’s Committee unless the United States administration chooses a wide aggressive trade policy against Europe.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-04-03 10:30:00