Can Vietnam golf its way out of new US import taxes?

Business correspondent

Countries start all over the world for the so -called “Liberation Day in America !!!” next week.
The deadline for the President of the United States will come to impose the multiple tariffs on commercial partners just days after hitting foreign car makers 25 % import taxes.
Vietnam can be especially vulnerable to the latest Trump players. It has a major trade deficit with the United States and was benefiting from companies that transport factories outside China to avoid the measures announced during his first term.
While some countries retreated to Washington, the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Fam Minh Cennis, suggested that he could take more diplomatic approach.
He said in January, he said he was ready to visit Trump’s home, Mar Lago in Florida and “Golf all day” if it benefits his country, and attracts laughter in the room.
This idea may not be very far. Trump is planning to invest billions of dollars in golf courses, hotels and real estate in Vietnam, According to Reuters news agency.
According to what was reported, the first project will be a residential complex with three golf courses from 18 holes, which will be decomposed in May.
BBC called the company and its Vietnamese partner to comment.
But can Golf diplomacy really work?
“Bamboo” economy
Trump has already said that Vietnam was “worse than China” and “the worst aggressor of anyone.”
But it was not specifically targeting Vietnam with definitions, although he has the third largest commercial deficit with the United States, after China and Mexico.
Analysts say Vietnam is well afflicted with engaging with Washington – but her efforts may still be insufficient to avoid most tariff plans in Trump.
“Prime Minister Vietnam seems to take a page from a book [former Japanese PM] “Shinzo Abe, who built a close personal relationship with Trump because of their joint love of the golf,” said Stephen Olson, a former American commercial negotiator.
“However, I do not expect any special treatment for Vietnam from the point of view of politics. Personal relationships are important for Trump, but in this case, I think his desire to appear strongly on trade will win.”
Vietnam said that she does not plan to “restrict trade” with the United States, although it imposes taxes on some imports from there.
The government said this week that it will allow Spacex, owned by Trump Elon Musk’s ally, to run online internet service in the country on a pilot basis.
Some analysts believe that this is one of the measures that Vietnam has taken to avoid a tariff with customs tariffs.
Hanoi also said it would reduce the customs tariff for many American imports, including energy and cars, a step aimed at “improving commercial balances”.
This came less than two weeks after the Vietnamese and American companies signed more than 4 billion dollars (5.4 billion pounds) in deals, in areas that include oil and gas exploration.
“Vietnam is keen to avoid any moves that would refer to any cooperation in commercial issues,” said Steve Norris of the risk of controlling consulting.
This strategy is in line with the foreign policy approach – known as “bamboo diplomacy”. Like buds of plants that swing with the wind, Vietnam hopes to be adaptable to foreign pressure.
“If the United States will increase pressure on Vietnam, the government may respond with offers to facilitate investments in the hospitality and casino industries, and it is able to purchase advanced machines, and capture this moment – looking at access to rare Earth minerals in Vietnam,” said Mr. Norris.
What about China?
One of the major factors working against Vietnam is concerns about the influence of China.
Vietnam was one of the largest beneficiaries of US -Chinese tensions during the first period of Trump.
In 2018, China struck definitions, causing some companies to rethink as its products were made. Some have chosen manufacturing to Vietnam.
This has increased exports from Vietnam to the United States, with Chinese companies that transferred production there contribute to this number.

The former trade negotiator in the United States, Wendy Katener, said Vietnam has emerged as a “destination for the main Chinese investment.”
While the United States is still the largest export market in Vietnam, China is its largest supplier for commodities, as it represents more than a third of imports, according to the latest official data.
Chinese companies were behind nearly one of every three new investments in Vietnam last year.
“These are Trump’s huge red flags. My expectations are that Vietnam will strike at some point in the tariff,” said Mr. Olson.
However, the customs tariff for Vietnam can affect American companies such as Apple and Intel, and Nike sportswear giant, which transferred production lines from China to Vietnam.

A recent survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam found that most American manufacturers expect to get rid of employees if the customs tariff is imposed.
The US President believes that the fees will enhance his country’s economy by encouraging more companies to make goods in the United States and bring in billions of dollars in taxes.
But many economists have warned that it could impose the prices of American consumers and negatively affect world trade.
What comes after that?
Washington is also concerned about the so-called “shipments”-Chinese goods that pass through Vietnam on its way to other countries.
Mr. Norris said that US officials “quietly stress Vietnam that he should reduce trade surplus over time and fight Chinese goods across the country.”
Vietnam Prime Minister said he is confident that his administration could “deal with the relationship with the United States.”
Now that Southeast Asia has reduced some customs tariffs on American goods, it may be more attractive to Vietnamese consumers, which increases America’s share of trade with the country.
Then there is a golf game – played with a game with Trump that was working for the late Japanese leader Shinzo Abe.
Abe and Trump created a friendship, which included many golf games for several years. It can be said that friendship helped the safe tariff exemptions for the critical car industry in Japan at the time.
Currently, it is not clear whether Vietnam will already give golf diplomacy a swing.
The real test will come next week, when a new list of Trump taxes will be accelerated.
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2025-03-27 23:13:00