• Analysts closely see April 2 to obtain a possible new US tariff adsSince President Trump has already imposed and threatened more customs tariffs on the main commercial partners, including the European Union, Canada, Mexico and China. The market’s concerns about the potential stagnation are increasing, as Deutsche Bank has reported an average expectation of 43 % of the shrinkage, while the opinions within the cabinet remain divided on the economic impact of its commercial policies.

A little more than a week later, analysts have a metaphorical recycling in the calendar: April 2, it is expected to confirm additional tariff pledges, and the global tariff may be announced.

Long -distance hiking was already threatened and canceled, then it was finally placed on major trading partners such as Canada and Mexico, with an increase in imports coming from China.

Since President Trump took office in late January, the customs tariff has been placed on the goods that come out of the European Union, such as steel, with more policy expected.

The markets have been nullified German bank Before her failure to take the Oval Office in its speech, but searching for the financial giant now shows that analysts wake up to the threat.

In March Global Markets Survey – which spoke to 400 market makers worldwide – Deutsche Bank found feelings about the maximum scope of the Trump tariff system heading towards the upper end.

For example, on a scale from scratch to 10 (zero there is no additional tariff and 10 being an extremist system), the average December 2024 was five.

By March, this rose to six individuals, as the average was withdrawn by more analysts who answer at the top end of the scale.

“However, the markets expect that Europe will face a sustainable American tariff rate of 18 %, which feels higher than its price.”

After they asked analysts their constant rate, not the peak that the definitions are likely to start during negotiations, the majority of the respondents (26 %) said from 10 % to 15 %. However, 24 % and 22 % of correspondents chose 15 % to 20 % and 20 % to 25 %, respectively.

It comes after Trump He adopted a tougher position on the European Union When running for his second term. On the campaign’s path, the Republican politician said that he will not make exceptions to one of the closest commercial partners in America, saying: “I will tell you what, the European Union looks very nice, beautiful, right?

per ReutersHe added: “They do not take our cars. They do not take our agricultural products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, they will have to pay a large price.”

This threat has been pursued since then With Trump tells his government in February While he “loves the countries of Europe”, the European Union has been formed “for the corruption of” the United States, saying: “This is the purpose of this. They have done a good job of it.”

As Reed notes, this upper view of length in the tense political geography goes beyond the current market pricing strategy. like Jpmorgan Chase CEO Jimmy Damon Recently indicateThe customs tariff can do “good things” that are just a modest enlargement through “0.1 % or 0.2 %.”

but The man paid $ 39 million for his work in 2024He added that a 25 % global tariff on all imports will, in his opinion, will “stagnate and fully huge”.

The recession is afraid of more than 40 % advice

Before the elections, voters generally expected President Trump’s policies better for the economy than former Vice President Kamala Harris.

However, in the months that have passed on the recession, they infiltrated up, as Red reported the average expectations for American stagnation now by 43 %.

However, there was a great scope of opinions on this topic. Of the 400 respondents, 20 % put the possibility of recession in the next 12 months in between 20 % to 30 %.

Meanwhile, 17 % and 15 % of the respondents said that the possibility ranges from 30 % to 40 % and 40 % to 50 %, respectively.

Another 23 % of the respondents have a possibility of more than 60 %, indicating the scale of the market currently preparing.

Likewise, even within the cabinet, Trump appears divided.

Trade Minister Howard Lootnick, for example, I told NBC earlier this month“Donald Trump brings growth to America. I will never bet on the recession. There is no chance.”

At the same time, Trump’s Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessin, said, “There are no guarantees” that America will not have a recession.

Talk to Fox Business“I can’t guarantee anything … but what I can guarantee is that there is no reason that we need to stagnate,” said Pesin.

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-03-24 11:16:00