US Treasuries sell-off deepens as ‘safe haven’ status challenged

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Treasury bonds were sold on Wednesday, when President Donald Trump’s tariff entered into force, deepening the investor concern about the “safe haven” status of American sovereign debt.
The return of the US Treasury jumped for 10 years to 4.51 percent before returning to 4.37 percent-an increase of 0.11 degrees Celsius per day-while the return increased for 30 years for a short period above 5 percent. The return increased for 10 years from less than 3.9 percent earlier this week.
The moves provide a new challenge to the Trump administration, which previously cited the reduction of treasury revenues as a major goal of politics, and could represent a loss in the investor’s confidence in the largest sovereign debt market in the world.
“The sale process may indicate a transformation in the system as the US Treasury is no longer the global safe haven with fixed income,” said Ben Weletter, a CITI strategic expert.
Selling on Tuesday is the latest sign that investors are moving from low -risk assets to cash, such as Trump’s tariff The main commercial partners have severe fluctuations in the market.
Stocks and bonds are often seen in reverse, but futures contracts indicate that American stock markets are preparing for sale on Wednesday alongside American treasury bonds. It is also believed that the hedge boxes, which are a major cabinet holder, are also believed.
Investors and analysts pointed to the disruption of popular trade that aims to exploit the differences in prices between the treasury and the related future contracts, known as “basic trade”. With the hedge boxes reduction from the risks and the exit of these deals, they were selling treasury bonds and accumulating pressure on the markets.
Nick Lawson, CEO of the Ocean Wall Investment Group, said that the relaxation of this trade was “putting great pressure on the entire financial system.”
“The hedge funds have trillion in this type of strategy,” he said. “Since things are a whirlpool, they are forced to sell anything they can-even good assets-only to stay standing on his feet … If the federal reserve does not interfere soon, this may turn into a complete crisis. It is dangerous.”
“The huge hedge funds, which include trillion dollars from relative value deals, will explode today if the Federal Reserve does not save them.”
Many of the market participants said that the situation necessitated the outbreak of the market in March 2020, at the beginning of the epidemic, when the large -scale relaxation process contributed to the “cash motif” that sent the treasures to freedom of fall and forced the federal reserve to interfere in the purchases of huge bonds.
“Given the guidance scale, this raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve may need to respond to the stability of the market conditions,” said Jim Reed from Deutsche Bank. “The markets are pricing an increased probability of emergency reducing, just as we saw during the natural disturbances and the rise in the global financial crisis in 2008.”
But market participants and academics previously warned that feeding interventions to buy bonds and provide the basis can stimulate trading with a high degree of benefit from this because the purchase works as a floor for possible losses.
The government bond market in Japan also witnessed a sharp sale, as the return for 30 years increased 0.3 percentage points above 2.8 percent, which is the highest level in 21 years.
Ed Yardini wrote from Yardini’s research in a memo: “Vigilance and the association indicate that the Trump administration may play with the liquid Nitro.”
“There may be something about the explosion in the capital markets as a result of the stress resulting from the administration’s trade war.”
Anxiety over US debt after the US Treasury auction on Tuesday to obtain three -year notes I attracted the weakest request since 2023.
Weak demand for the coming auctions this week, including selling $ 39 billion from 10 years of observations on Wednesday and $ 22 billion of 30 -year bonds on Thursday.
Some market participants speculated that China and others were liquidating their treasury holdings.
“The market is now concerned about emptying China and other countries[ing]”US Treasury bonds as a tool for revenge. Grace Tam, chief investment advisor at BNP Paribas Wealth Management in Hong Kong: said:
“In the short term, we expect the bond market to remain volatile given the uncertainty about the specific definitions, negotiations and possible revenge.”
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2025-04-09 07:30:00